This entry for Predicting aviation hazards during convective events includes the following: the Swedish title, abstract, and keywords; Table of Contents, References (English).
Förutsäga farligt flygväder i samband med konvektiv verksamhet
Sammanfattning
Konvektion i atmosfären kan medföra väder med faror som gör att en pilot riskerar att tappa kontroll över sitt flygplan. Åskoväder är ett sådant exempel. Denna studie gjordes för att uppskatta nyttan av väderprognoser för piloter under dagar med konvektiv verksamhet. För att åstadkomma det gjordes en litteraturstudie för att identifiera svagheterna i hanterandet av konvektion hos numeriska väderprognos-modeller. Begränsningar hos prognosprodukter speciellt inriktade på flygverksamhet har också tagits upp. Dessutom innehåller studien iakttagelser från erfarna flyg-inriktade prognosmeteorologer. Studien begränsar sig till Sverige och de prognoser som utfärdas av Sveriges Meteorologiska och Hydrologiska Institut (SMHI).
Fyra huvudsakliga resultat erhölls. Det första var att de numeriska väderprognos-modeller som används i Sverige idag är otillräckliga för att skapa pålitliga prognoser för konvektion. För det andra upptäcktes att behovet av en ytterligare analys från prognosmeteorologer försvåras av brister hos så kallade konvektionsindex. Den tredje upptäckten var att prognoser som utfärdas mer än ett par timmar i förväg inte är att lita på. Till sist framställdes att bristerna i de prognosprodukter som finns tillgängliga för piloter saknar en stor del värdefull information angående konvektiv verksamhet. Det fastslogs att piloter inte får tillgång till tillräckligt mycket information från dessa produkter för att kunna planera en säker flygning genom konvektivt väder. Det är således angeläget att förbättra prognoser för konvektion i syfte att öka flygsäkerheten.
Nyckelord : Flygfaror, konvektion, väderprognoser
Table of contents
| 1 Introduction | 1 |
| 2 Background | 2 |
| 2.1 The physics of convection | 2 |
| 2.2 Modelling convection | 5 |
| 2.2.1 Parameterization | 6 |
| 2.3 Forecasting methods | 7 |
| 2.3.1 Soundings and indices | 8 |
| 2.4 Forecast verification | 10 |
| 2.5 Aviation hazards in the vicinity of CB and thunderstorms | 12 |
| 3 Method | 12 |
| 4 Results | 13 |
| 4.1 Forecast products | 14 |
| 4.2 Models and indices behind the products | 19 |
| 4.3 Evaluations of models and indices | 20 |
| 4.4 Comments from Fyrby at SMHI and Jakobsson at METOCC | 27 |
| 4.5 What are the chances of a pilot planning a safe flight? | 28 |
| 5 Discussion | 30 |
| 6 Conclusions | 32 |
| 7 Acknowledgements | 32 |
| 8 References | 33 |
| 8.1 Internet sources | 34 |
| 8.2 Personal communication | 35 |
8 References
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8.1 Internet sources
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8.2 Personal communication
Björck, E., 2015b (2015-04-10). SMHI. [Mail correspondance & Interview].
Fyrby, T., (2015-03-03). SMHI. [Mail correspondance & Interview].
Ivarsson, K. I., (2015-04-23). SMHI. [Mail correspondance].
Jakobsson, P. O., (2015-02-18). METOCC. [Mail correspondance].
Lundblad, M., 2015b (2015-05-04). SMHI. [Mail correspondance]. Olsson, E., (2015-04-30). SMHI. [Mail correspondence].
